Howard Marks
Some unloved European equities, anyone? I will be taking a closer look in the days to come.
I may post here relevant (in my opinion), and not necessarily recent, quotes. Rather than analyzing specific investments, I will attempt to focus on investors' sentiment regarding broader asset classes and/or specific securities. These will be my thoughts/reactions/questions, and they are not and should not be taken as investment advice.
About me
- Anonymous
- In particular, I am interested in investors' sentiment and valuation levels. Disclaimer: I work at an Investment Management firm. My comments on this site are not posted in that role, and no opinions of mine should be construed to be recommendations of or to reflect the views of my employer.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Stocks vs Bonds
"No one should view the great popularity of bonds relative to stocks without reservation."
Sunday, September 12, 2010
The higher it gets, the better it looks
I argued in June that iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (Public, NYSE: IYR) is a ripe candidate for shorting. It subsequently went down 10 percent and then bounced back to the $53 level.
In an absence of a rapidly occurring economic rebound, a strong deterioration in the value of the US dollar and/or strong inflationary pressures, I fail to recognize a justification for ownership of the asset class (at least in the short term). If anything, I tend to think that at these price levels, this particular slice of a US real estate proxy is even a better target for a rather skeptical look.
However, that does not mean that I am bearish on actual properties, given that they are carefully selected, deeply discounted and financed with low interest rates. But maybe they should not be bought for speculative purposes. The pure investment aspect should be a very distant second/third consideration. If one's cash flow can service the debt and one is looking for home/business property with long-term outlook and a realistic income-generating agenda, the logic behind the thinking looks certainly better than in 2007.
In an absence of a rapidly occurring economic rebound, a strong deterioration in the value of the US dollar and/or strong inflationary pressures, I fail to recognize a justification for ownership of the asset class (at least in the short term). If anything, I tend to think that at these price levels, this particular slice of a US real estate proxy is even a better target for a rather skeptical look.
However, that does not mean that I am bearish on actual properties, given that they are carefully selected, deeply discounted and financed with low interest rates. But maybe they should not be bought for speculative purposes. The pure investment aspect should be a very distant second/third consideration. If one's cash flow can service the debt and one is looking for home/business property with long-term outlook and a realistic income-generating agenda, the logic behind the thinking looks certainly better than in 2007.
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