I may post here relevant (in my opinion), and not necessarily recent, quotes. Rather than analyzing specific investments, I will attempt to focus on investors' sentiment regarding broader asset classes and/or specific securities. These will be my thoughts/reactions/questions, and they are not and should not be taken as investment advice.

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In particular, I am interested in investors' sentiment and valuation levels. Disclaimer: I work at an Investment Management firm. My comments on this site are not posted in that role, and no opinions of mine should be construed to be recommendations of or to reflect the views of my employer.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Ripe for shorting?

The subject at hand is the state of the estate. The US real estate, that is. The proxy in the brief discussion is its ETF incarnation, iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (Public, NYSE: IYR). It has been a steady money maker, if you bought it in March 09. Since then, it is up 98%. Yet, some cracks seem to be appearing in its shiny armor. Is it getting a bit ahead of itself, perched so high above the not-so fast growing green shoots?

A question follows: why bother with shorting murky Chinese real estate developers in HK when one can play at home?

A reference point: last time it stood at $50/share was in June 2004. Surely June 2010 has a bit of a different view from the window.