I may post here relevant (in my opinion), and not necessarily recent, quotes. Rather than analyzing specific investments, I will attempt to focus on investors' sentiment regarding broader asset classes and/or specific securities. These will be my thoughts/reactions/questions, and they are not and should not be taken as investment advice.

About me

In particular, I am interested in investors' sentiment and valuation levels. Disclaimer: I work at an Investment Management firm. My comments on this site are not posted in that role, and no opinions of mine should be construed to be recommendations of or to reflect the views of my employer.

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Tired of inflation-adjusted peaks

Richard Bernstein is selectively bullish on US and bearish on China:

"I think China is already imploding ... from an investment point, it is... My argument is as an investor, you don't care about the Chinese economy but about the valuation of Chinese assets... You have to be careful in terms of the prognosis, especially for the United States, that this is going to become Argentina."

Richard Bernstein via Reuters

Back to the subject of the yellow metal. A sample of recent quotes follows:

"On an inflation-adjusted basis, however, gold is far from its peak level of 1980..."
"When adjusted for inflation, however, gold remains far short of its all-time high..."
"Gold’s rally to a record means prices are still 53 percent below the 1980 inflation-adjusted peak..."

Following this "logic", stocks have to repeat their year 2000 highs very soon. How about 1936 lows, anybody?
By the way, gold hit its 1980 peak and then retreated very rapidly. Within a month, the game was over, followed by a 22 year-long bear market. Makes one think.